主题：Micro Shocks and Macro Fluctuations in the Information Network
主讲人：霍震，耶鲁大学经济系副教授
时间：3月9日（周一）下午2:00-3:30
地点：4-101教室
语言：英文
摘要：In this paper, we study how heterogeneity in firms’ attention allocation contributes to the amplification of micro-level shocks into aggregate economic fluctuations. Empirically, we document that the attention firms receive follows a fat-tailed distribution based on their browsing activities related to each other’s electronic filings on EDGAR. This finding suggests that a relatively small subset of firms attracts a disproportionately large share of attention, consistent with the fact that the browsing-weighted measure of sales growth exhibits substantial predictive power for macroeconomic forecasts based on survey data. Theoretically, we extend the noisy business cycle framework (Angeletos and La’O, 2010) to incorporate asymmetric attention at the firm level through a directed graph. We derive conditions under which granular effects emerge even when firms are homogeneous in size and analyze the interplay between attention allocation and firm-size heterogeneity in magnifying micro-level shocks. Quantitatively, our analysis reveals that attention heterogeneity alone can drive significant aggregate fluctuations resulting from micro shocks. Nevertheless, the degree to which attention asymmetry complements firm-size heterogeneity depends critically on the correlation between these two factors.
主讲人介绍：
Zhen Huo is a macroeconomist whose research focuses on the role of information and financial frictions in shaping aggregate fluctuations. His current work provides a method to solve the rational expectations models with higher order beliefs. He applied this method to measure the importance of belief shocks in accounting for business cycles. Another line of his research explores the link between household financial difficulties and the recent Great Recession.
